Work in progress

Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy, with Michael Woodford, May 2018, NBER working paper 24629


Shows under what circumstances  monetary policies that 'lean-against' unexpected house price increases  are optimal within a New Keynesian  sticky price model with a housing  sector. 

Press coverage: MarketWatch, Brookings- Hutchins Roundup

Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?, with Stefan Nagel and Dmitry Matveev, September 2018, NBER working paper 25122.


Uses survey data to test for the  empirical plausibility of the notion that stock investors interviewed in  surveys report risk-neutral forecasts (Cochrane (2011,2017) or  robust/ambiguity-averse forecasts (Hansen, Sargent & Tallarini  (ReStud1999), Epstein & Schneider (2008)). 

Stock Prices Cycles and Business Cycles, with Sebastian Merkel, June 2019


We present a simple RBC model that jointly replicates the behavior of stock prices and business cycles. The model predicts that low interest rates make stock price boom-bust cycles more likely and that these cycles are triggered by a sequence of positive productivity surprises.

Price Trends over the Product Life Cycle and the Optimal Inflation Target, with Henning Weber, June 2019

Using official UK micro price data, the paper shows that relative product prices tend to fall over the life cycle of the product. It shows that this empirical observation has important normative implications for the optimal inflation target, which is estimated to range between 2.6% and 3.2% for the UK economy