Work in progress
Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy, with Michael Woodford, May 2018, NBER working paper 24629
Shows under what circumstances monetary policies that 'lean-against' unexpected house price increases are optimal within a New Keynesian sticky price model with a housing sector.
Press coverage: MarketWatch, Brookings- Hutchins Roundup
Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?, with Stefan Nagel and Dmitry Matveev, September 2018, NBER working paper 25122.
Uses survey data to test for the empirical plausibility of the notion that stock investors interviewed in surveys report risk-neutral forecasts (Cochrane (2011,2017) or robust/ambiguity-averse forecasts (Hansen, Sargent & Tallarini (ReStud1999), Epstein & Schneider (2008)).
Stock Prices Cycles and Business Cycles, with Sebastian Merkel, September 2018
We present a unifi ed and quantitatively credible explanation for the joint behavior of stock prices and business cycles using a frictionless production economy with fully elastic labor supply and time-separable consumption preferences.